Pharma Share Moves of 2024: Lilly and Vertex Rise, Pfizer and Merck Decline
核心洞察
Eli Lilly's shares surged by 37% YTD, driven by the success of Zepbound for weight loss and advancements in its Alzheimer's treatment, Kisunla.
Pfizer's shares declined by over 10% due to normalization of COVID-19 business and patent cliffs, despite efforts to transition Paxlovid to a commercial market.
Merck (搜索)'s shares fell by more than 7% amid concerns about Keytruda's patent expiration and recent trial failures, though partnerships and pipeline assets offer hope.
Eli Lilly has emerged as a frontrunner among major pharmaceutical companies, experiencing a 37% surge in its share price year-to-date. This growth is largely attributed to the blockbuster success of Zepbound (tirzepatide), approved for weight loss in late 2023. The company's market capitalization has increased by $162.8 billion since December 31, 2023, reaching $716.2 billion.
Lilly's Obesity Portfolio and Alzheimer's Advancement
The approval and subsequent market performance of Zepbound have been pivotal in Lilly's success. As of the end of September, Zepbound had been approved in 10 countries, with launches planned in 12 more. Lilly is also focusing on expanding its obesity portfolio with additional GLP-1 options, including oral orforglipron and injectable retatrutide, with Phase III results expected in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Furthermore, Lilly received FDA approval for Kisunla, a disease-modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease (搜索), positioning it against competitors like Biogen and Eisai's Leqembi.
Pfizer's Challenges and Pipeline Prospects
In contrast, Pfizer has faced challenges, with its shares declining by over 10% this year. This decline is primarily due to the normalization of its COVID-19 business, as the demand for its COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and therapeutic, Paxlovid, has waned. Despite these challenges, Pfizer is focusing on transitioning Paxlovid to a commercial market and has products like Eliquis driving revenue. However, the company faces stiff patent cliffs across its portfolio. Pfizer is also awaiting results for its oral obesity candidate, danuglipron, in early 2025, which could significantly impact its position in the obesity market.
Amgen's MariTide Data Disappoints
Amgen experienced a nearly 6% decline in its share price, with a notable drop following the release of Phase II data for its obesity candidate, MariTide. The data showed a 20% weight loss, which was on the lower end of analyst expectations. This news led to an 8% drop in the company's shares, wiping out approximately $7.53 billion in market capitalization.
Vertex's Cystic Fibrosis Leadership and Gene Therapy Expansion
Vertex, on the other hand, has seen a 13.35% increase in its share price. The company maintains its leadership in cystic fibrosis (搜索) (CF) with products like Trikafta, Kalydeco, and Symdeko. Additionally, Vertex is expanding its revenue streams with the gene therapy Casgevy, developed in partnership with CRISPR Therapeutics, for sickle cell disease. The company also anticipates FDA decisions for its CF drug vanzacaftor triple and oral pain medication suzetrigine in early 2025.
Merck's Keytruda Concerns and Pipeline Hopes
Merck (搜索) has faced a decline of over 7% in its share price, primarily due to concerns about the impending patent expiration for its blockbuster cancer drug, Keytruda. Recent trial failures and discontinuations in colorectal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, and small cell lung cancer have also contributed to investor concerns. However, analysts see potential in Merck's pipeline, particularly through its partnership with Daiichi Sankyo and its acquisition of Prometheus for inflammation and immunology assets. A Phase III trial for Winrevair in pulmonary arterial hypertension (搜索) was stopped early due to overwhelming efficacy, offering further hope for growth.
Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 Dominance and Market Fluctuations
Novo Nordisk, while still showing a positive share change of 2.76% year-to-date, has experienced market fluctuations. The company's market cap rose substantially following the approval of Wegovy, reaching a high in June. However, its shares have since fallen back, tracking the news flow surrounding the GLP-1 space. Positive news, such as the Biden administration's proposal to cover weight loss drugs for patients on Medicare and Medicaid, has positively impacted Novo's stock.