Effect of Organizational Measures to Prevent and Control COVID-19 Infection in Nursing Homes on the Risk of Death of Residents During and After the Epidemic Period

The COVID epidemic has shown very high mortality among older people, especially among poly-morbid and dependent subjects. In addition to the classic risk factors of age, dependence and associated co-morbidities, community life exposes to specific increased risks in the event of this easily inter human transmissible viral epidemic. In France, according to the Direction of research, studies, evaluation and statistics (DREES) data (Ehpa study, 2015) more than 600,000 elderly people currently live in nursing homes (NH). Since March 28, a national guidance for monitoring the COVID epidemic in NH has just been set up. In France, 14 178 of the 29 319 COVID deaths (48.35%) by June 10th 2020 occurred among NHs residents. Work to consolidate these data is underway, suggesting a much heavier balance sheet. Faced to this threat, in addition to practical recommendations (barrier protection gestures), strict instructions were also announced to all NH to keep their residents safe from COVID : restricting all visitors, all volunteers and nonessential personnel, and more recently, confining residents in their room in case of incident case of COVID in the NH. Organizational factors of NH such as the prevention strategies deployed before and during the epidemic (pneumococcal vaccination, restricting group activities), as well as NH internal resources (equipment, nursing staff) and health resources in the NH environment (hospital partnerships, support devices, telemedicine) lead to heterogeneous situations and could influence the death rates of residents. On the other hand, social isolation can also precipitate the decline of fragile residents. Beyond the immediate and directly risks linked to COVID-19, the present hypothesize that the organizational measures (guidance and recommendations) put in place can have, during and at a distance from the outbreak, beneficial effects but also deleterious effects depending on the severity of the outbreak of a geographic area. More precisely, the hypothesis is that strong and well-followed recommendations at the time of the epidemic were associated with a reduction in the risk of total death in particular of deaths related to COVID in the zones most affected by the epidemic but also that strong and well-followed recommendations were associated with an increased risk of total death, in particular of deaths unrelated to COVID in the areas least affected by the epidemic.