The Surprise Study

Completed

• Conditions: Terminal Illness; Palliative Care
• Interventions: Other: Online study

• Registration Number: NCT03697213
• Lead Sponsor: University College, London

Brief Summary

This study investigates the use of the Surprise Question \[SQ\] (would you be surprised if this patient were to die in the next 12 months?) in routine practice. In particular, the study will investigate the consistency of the responses to the SQ and the relationship with the subsequent course of action decided upon.

Detailed Description

Whilst the original use of the Surprise Question was to identify people who might be in the last year of life and benefit from palliative care, the prognostic capability of the Surprise Question has been shown to be variable. What is unclear, is the extent to which a doctor should be "surprised" before a patient is suitable for palliative care, how consistently doctors respond to this question, and how the subsequent treatment decision relates to the SQ response.

The study will recruit 600 General Practitioners (GPs) from 6 participating countries (100 per country; UK, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands). Each participant will asked to complete a series of 20 hypothetical patient summaries in an online task.

Study Timeline

• Study First Submitted: 2018-09-25
• Study First Submitted QC: 2018-10-03
• Study First Posted: 2018-10-05
• Study Start: 2019-03-25
• Status Verified: 2020-03
• Primary Completion: 2020-03-01
• Study Completion: 2020-03-01
• Last Update Submitted: 2020-03-25
• Last Update Posted: 2020-03-27

Recruitment & Eligibility

• Status: COMPLETED
• Sex: All
• Target Recruitment: 250

Inclusion Criteria

• Registered General Practitioner in one of the six participating countries
• Able to read and understand the language in which the questionnaire is presented to them

Exclusion Criteria

• None

Study & Design

• Study Type: OBSERVATIONAL
• Study Design: Not specified

Arm && Interventions

Group	Intervention	Description
General Practitioners	Online study	Registered General Practitioners in one of the six participating countries.

Primary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
Probability estimate	Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide an estimate for each vignette (n=20)	The continuous estimate of probability of dying within the next 12 months for the SQ (0-100%).

Secondary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
Treatment options	up to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)	The options for the course of action selected by the participants in each vignette
The Surprise Question	up to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)	Dichotomous response to the SQ (Yes/No)
The alternative Surprise Question	up to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)	Dichotomous response to the alternative SQ (Yes/No)

Trial Locations

Locations (6)

University of Mainz; 🇩🇪 Mainz, Germany

University of Bologna; 🇮🇹 Bologna, Italy

Radboud University Medical Centre; 🇳🇱 Nijmegen, Netherlands

Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Department; 🇬🇧 London, United Kingdom

University of Antwerp; 🇧🇪 Antwerp, Belgium

University Hospital of Bern; 🇨🇭 Bern, Switzerland